Diabetes may impose a staggering burden on the global economy, potentially costing up to €140 trillion (approximately US$152 trillion) by 2050, according to a new international analysis of health and economic data. The projected figure includes both formal healthcare expenditures and the often-overlooked economic value of informal care provided by families and communities.
The study, conducted by researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the Vienna University of Economics and Business, analyzed diabetes costs across 204 countries and territories from 2020 to 2050. This comprehensive approach highlights how the growing prevalence of diabetes — driven by aging populations, rising obesity rates, and changing lifestyles — could affect societies and economies at an unprecedented scale.
Rising Prevalence and Global Trends
Diabetes mellitus, a chronic metabolic disease characterized by high blood sugar, is already one of the most common non-communicable diseases worldwide. Roughly one in ten adults today lives with diabetes — and that proportion is climbing steadily, largely due to increases in type 2 diabetes linked to obesity and sedentary lifestyles.
Forecasts suggest that the number of people with diabetes could continue to rise significantly through mid-century unless preventive efforts are strengthened. This surge is expected to amplify both healthcare costs and broader economic impacts, including lost productivity and reduced workforce participation.
Economic Burden Breakdown
The new analysis underscores how dramatically the cost picture shifts when informal care — such as unpaid family caregiving — is included alongside direct medical costs. Without factoring in informal care, global diabetes costs from 2020 to 2050 are estimated at around US$10 trillion, or about 0.2% of annual global GDP. However, once informal caregiving and related economic effects are counted, the total rises sharply, approaching US$152 trillion — equal to approximately €140 trillion.
These figures encompass direct healthcare expenditures — such as hospital treatments, medications, and medical consultations — as well as indirect costs, including lost productivity due to illness, disability, premature death, and the economic value of time that caregivers forgo in paid employment.
Experts note that informal care plays a particularly significant role in chronic diseases like diabetes because caregivers may reduce work hours or leave the labor force entirely to provide support. This loss of economic participation can have long-lasting effects on household incomes and national productivity.
Regional and Health System Impacts
Parallel research highlights the substantial economic burden in specific regions. For instance, a separate study focusing on the Eastern Mediterranean Region projects the total cost of diabetes in that area alone could rise from Int$639 billion in 2023 to Int$1.5 trillion by 2050 if current trends continue. In these projections, indirect costs related to lost productivity and premature mortality account for nearly 90% of the total economic impact.
In the Middle East and North Africa, diabetes already affects tens of millions of people and is expected to double in prevalence by mid-century, resulting in millions of deaths annually and placing escalating pressure on national healthcare systems and employers.
Global Policy and Health Priorities
Public health experts argue that the enormity of diabetes’ projected economic toll underscores the importance of preventive strategies and early intervention. Improving access to screening, promoting healthier diets and physical activity, and expanding education about lifestyle risk factors are seen as essential to curbing both the human and financial costs of the disease.
Investment in effective prevention and management programs could yield significant returns by reducing long-term healthcare spending, enhancing workforce productivity, and easing the burden on caregivers.
A Call for Global Action
As diabetes prevalence continues to rise in high-income and low- and middle-income countries alike, the economic threat looms large. Policymakers, health systems, and businesses face mounting pressure to implement comprehensive strategies that address not only treatment but also prevention and community support.
Without decisive action, diabetes is poised to become one of the most costly health challenges of the 21st century — not only in human terms, but in economic ones that span generations and touch virtually every sector of society.
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